Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
