A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
